Tracking the Flu

Reported January 2010

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. (Ivanhoe Newswire) -- The number of people getting hit by the flu virus keeps growing. It's impossible to accurately predict how fast or how far the spread of the disease will go. Now, a new tool that shows the spread of a flu outbreak and how it can be stopped.

In a matter of seconds, you can be exposed to the cold or flu virus. Although there's protection…

"I had all my children as well as myself and my husband get the flu shot," Marti Burns told Ivanhoe.

…No one is a hundred percent safe.

"I've had pneumonia in the past and having the flu would be a condition that could exacerbate another bout of pneumonia," Tim Collins said.

It's impossible to predict the spread of the flu, but now, computer scientists and engineers at Purdue University and Pacific Northwest National Labs, have created a visual tool that simulates the spread of the disease, and shows ways to stop it in its tracks.

"If you take no action, you can see how given the first person who becomes infected, how the pandemic would spread over a 30 day period across the state," David Ebert, Ph.D., a computer scientist at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Ind., explained.

The tool, called PanViz, compares how the disease progresses if certain steps are, or are not taken to control the spread and the impact of the disease.

"You begin taking decision measures such as social distancing, using the media to alert people to stay at home, not come out, closing schools, and so by doing those it lessens the impact of the pandemic," Ross Maciejewski, a Ph.D. candidate at Purdue University said.

Using a computer program, researchers can plug in different scenarios and show visually what would happen across a state if schools were closed earlier, lowering person to person contact, or what affect antiviral medications would have, and how all these actions affect the availability of hospital beds, how many people will end up sick, and the percentage of deaths.

"For us, from the research side, is seeing how we can help people make more effective decision through interaction with visual displays of information, as well as increase the safety and well being of the population," Dr. Ebert said.

From seeing the affect of their actions, public health officials can make quicker decisions when it comes to closing schools, and alerting the public on what to do.

"I would stay home and self treat myself, self medicate," Collins said.

You can see for yourself what impact your choice would make at www.engineering.purdue.edu. You're just a mouse click away from seeing the future of the flu.

The simulation tool is currently available for New York, New Jersey, Indiana and Washington State.

The Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc.-USA, contributed to the information contained in the TV portion of this report.

Click here to Go Inside This Science or contact:

Dr. David S. Ebert
School of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Purdue University
West Lafayette, IN 47907
ebertd@purdue.edu

Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
Barry List
(443) 757-3560
http://www.informs.org
barry.list@informs.org

Lois Smith
Human Factors and Ergonomics Society
Santa Monica, CA 90406
(310) 394-1811
http://www.hfes.org
lois@hfes.org

Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc.
IEEE
Pender McCarter
IEEE http://www.ieee.org
IEEE-USA http://www.ieeeusa.org
p.mccarter@ieee.org

There are six million car accidents each year, but researchers are trying to change that by building a car that adapts to your driving habits.

They are high-tech and solar powered! Solar homes are not what they used to be. We’ll show you the latest and greatest designs.

Two new discoveries on the Red Planet have scientists asking …is there life on Mars? What does lightening and water have to do with the answer?

A tea bag could save thousands of sea life from death and save you from getting sick. We’ll show you how.

Meet the first person in the world to have a windpipe transplant. Her own stem cells saved her life

Breast cancer is the second most common cancer among women. Now a new cancer therapy is targeting tumors with fewer side effects.

Parkinson’s disease affects 1.5 million people in the United States. Ninety percent of those people have a hard time talking. A new technology is helping them speak up and be heard.

It’s a new high tech medical device that can diagnose a heart attack before you, or even the doctor, knows its happening.

No more pain … less fatigue! A new drug for Lupus could be the best treatment for the disease in nearly 50 years.

When the flu hits, your next move could impact millions! A new research tool can predict how fast and how far the virus will spread.

Two million hospital-acquired infections happen each year. The number of infections could be cut in half with better hand washing by medical staff. We’ll show you a new device that makes sure everyone has germ-free hands.

How hot is too hot? Wouldn’t it be nice if you knew before biting into your next pepper? Science may hold the answer to saving you from a burning mouth.