MADISON, Wis. (Ivanhoe Newswire) -- The 2008 hurricane season is underway. Will it be an active season, or a quiet one? Scientists are looking at a new atmospheric model that could hold some of the answers, and one day allow them to predict hurricane activity months in advance, providing an earlier warning for those in harm’s way.
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Former New Orleans chef John Roussos serves up a taste of the Crescent City in his Wisconsin restaurant. Though he was hundreds of miles away, he says Hurricane Katrina hit close to home.
“It’ll be awhile before I go back … maybe a long while,” Roussos told Ivanhoe.
University of Wisconsin atmospheric scientist Jim Kossin, Ph.D., wasn’t just close to a hurricane -- he was inside one. “In Hurricane Gilbert, that we flew into, the eye was very clear because it was such a strong storm,” Dr. Kossin said.
Now, Dr. Kossin’s research focuses on a new way to understand hurricane activity by combining key ocean and atmospheric factors. It’s called AMM or Atlantic Meridional Mode -- a relationship between sea surface temperature, wind speed or direction and the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Dr. Kossin says a positive or warm AMM sets the stage for an active hurricane season.
“During the AMM warm phase we have warmer water than average, weaker shear than average, many hurricanes that form and become major hurricanes, “Dr. Kossin said.
A negative AMM means colder water, stronger winds, and dryer air -- conditions that stop hurricanes. “And you can see that the number of hurricanes that are forming during this phase are much less,” said Dr. Kossin.
Concentrating on how the atmosphere and ocean work together may help scientists better understand hurricanes themselves.
“The number of hurricanes that we get, how long they last, how strong they get, where they track, which I think will have. We’re still working on it, but I think it will have a lot of implications for landfall, which of course we care most about,” Dr. Kossin said.
It’s one more step toward forecasting one of the earths’ most powerful natural phenomena.
The American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society contributed to the information contained in the TV portion of this report.
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