Perfect Weather Predictions

Reported May 2008

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Ivanhoe Newswire) -- Every day, weather forecasters are put to the test for accurate daily predictions. It's a hard job that gets blamed for rained-out picnics, cancelled barbecues and delayed planes; but today, our forecasts are more accurate than any other time in history.

We rely on our meteorologists to help plan our lives, but one wrong forecast and local meteorologists are the first to get blamed. Predicting the weather isn't easy, but despite a few missed temperatures, weather forecasting has actually made huge improvements in the last 20 years. "Our forecasts, on average for large storms, were about 90 percent accurate," Douglas Young, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Washington, D.C., told Ivanhoe.

Predicting where a hurricane is headed and where it will end up has improved. In 1985, forecasters predicted a hurricane's path 366 miles wide. Now, a hurricane's path can be predicted down to within a 111 mile-wide path. That's a 67 percent increase in accuracy! "This expected improvement will continue during the next decade or so as we fly aircraft inside the inner core of the storm to learn more information," Young said.

Technology advances in radar and satellites have also helped daily forecasts improve. A four-day forecast today is better than a two-day forecast was back in the mid 1980's. And it gets better ... "Our six-day forecasts are as good as our three-day forecasts used to be," Young said. And better … "Our three-day forecasts are accurate 75 percent of the time within five degrees," he said.

While meteorologists may not be perfect, forecasting continues to improve so the chances of a perfect forecast increase almost every day. A three-day forecast of one inch or more of precipitation -- like rain or snow -- is as accurate as a two-day forecast was ten years ago.

The American Meteorological Society contributed to the information contained in the TV portion of this report.

Click here to Go Inside This Science or contact:

American Meteorological Society
Boston, MA 02108-3693
(617) 227-2425
http://www.ametsoc.org

Ms. Mary M. Cairns, M.S.
Senior Staff Meteorologist, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Silver Spring, MD 20910
(301) 427-2002
http://www.ofcm.gov
mary.cairns@noaa.gov

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