Heads up on Severe Weather

Reported November 2006

BALTIMORE (Ivanhoe Broadcast News) -- It's a sign of trouble. Thunderstorms mixed with air travel usually means delays, headaches and frustrated passengers. Flying from Atlanta to New York, the weather can change fast when you're flying at speeds up to 500 mph. Even huge airplanes are no match for the power of a thunderstorm.

"Pilots who have flown through them have described it as the most frightening experience of their lives," Pilot Chris Dancy, member of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) in Frederick, Maryland, tells Ivanhoe.

Severe storms can form quickly, forcing pilots to change flight paths and causing delays in the air and on the ground. Now, atmospheric scientists have developed a new weather warning system that predicts where a thunderstorm will develop in the next hour.

"It pretty much will tell a pilot which route to take his aircraft, such that he can avoid thunderstorms that will form ahead of him," John Mecikalski, Ph.D., an atmospheric scientist at University of Alabama, Huntsville, tells Ivanhoe.

The system combines satellite images of clouds and cloud temperatures -- called infrared images -- from NOAA's GOES and NASA's MODIS satellites. Cloud tops that quickly get colder are likely to develop into a new thunderstorm. Pilots receiving the information can steer around a storm sooner.

"The system's accuracy is roughly 60- to 70-percent accurate for the development of a thunderstorm at one location," Dr. Mecikalski says.

The new system is currently being tested by the FAA. Pilots who fly over areas not covered by traditional radar will benefit the most and can receive satellite information updates every 15 minutes. Pinpointing thunderstorms ahead of time could mean fewer delays for passengers and more time for pilots to look for sunnier skies.

Dancy says, "Without this technology that lets you look ahead, you could end up right in the middle of a developing thunderstorm." Instead you end up flying high in the sunny, safe skies.

The American Meteorological Society contributed to the information contained in the TV portion of this report.

Click here to Go Inside This Science or contact:

John R. Mecikalski, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
University of Alabama in Huntsville
(256) 961-7046
john.mecikalski@nsstc.uah.edu

The American Meteorological Society
Boston, MA 02108-3693
(617) 227-2425
http://www.ametsoc.org

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