Picking the Perfect Play

Reported November 2006

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. (Ivanhoe Broadcast News) -- Every pass, punt, block, hit, run -- every play can make or break a team's season. A win -- or loss -- often boils down to some tough calls. They're paid big bucks, but do you always agree with the coaches' call? Now, a computer software program can tell in a matter of seconds which play will give football teams the best chance of winning.

It's called Zeus...

Indiana University astrophysicist Chuck Bower, Ph.D., designed the software using a decade's worth of NFL stats. It determines which play will give a team the best chance of winning, factoring in things like the score, time-outs, game clock and adjusting for teams' strengths and weaknesses. The program focuses on "gray-area plays" like fourth-down decisions, penalty acceptance, kickoffs and extra points -- not the most common, but often the most important and controversial.

"ZEUS says what play gives you the maximum chance of winning the game," Dr. Bower tells Ivanhoe.

Here's a rundown of last year's super bowl. The Steelers were up 11 over the Seahawks. The Seahawks went for the field goal. In a matter of seconds, Zeus plays out more than 1 million possibilities and shows that was one of the worst choices they could have made. The Seahawks missed the field goal. Instead, Zeus shows they should have gone for the medium pass, upping their winning odds by 3 percent.

"We find that teams on average for a year can cost themselves about one game a season," Dr. Bower says, "which can be huge." He says Zeus won't replace a coach but it could mean the difference between playing in the Superbowl or watching it from home.

The NFL hasn't embraced the technology just yet. The league is known for its conservative decisions and its trust in the highly paid coaches -- and not necessarily computers. Zeus's makers say the program could also be tailored to college football.

The Human Factors and Ergonomics Society contributed to the information contained in the TV portion of this report.

Click here to Go Inside This Science or contact:

Charles (Chuck) Bower, Ph.D.
Indiana University
Bloomington, IN
(812) 855-6190
bower@astro.indiana.edu

Human Factors and Ergonomics Society
Santa Monica, CA 90406
(310) 394-1811
http://www.hfes.org

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