Predicting Major Weather Disasters

Reported August 2006

BOULDER, Colo. (Ivanhoe Broadcast News) -- Tsunamis, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes ... Nature's fickle, and devastating forces are sometimes a surprise. But scientists are not waiting for the next big one. Another hurricane season is here, and while we hold our breath hoping for a less-destructive season than last year, scientists are stepping up to the challenge of looking at how the United States will stand up to all types of natural disasters.

A monster wave strikes the resort beaches of Thailand ... Amid the chaos, a vacationing couple from Tiny Town, Colorado, survives by climbing a tree, while brad was able to catch the destruction on his video camera.

"It looked like the white water was stacked up about 30 feet when Bradley said 'Run,'" Stephanie Hanks says. Her husband, Brad, adds, "All I could think of was that wave coming down on us."

On December 26, 2004, the Indian Ocean's tsunami shocked everyone. But scientists say there is no reason for surprise. No place on earth is without risk.

"In terms of the potential top five disasters that could affect the U.S., a lot depends on what sort of probability we want to talk about," disaster expert Ilan Kelman, Ph.D., of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, tells Ivanhoe.

At NCAR, disaster experts identified the types of events the United States is most likely to face. For example, earthquakes on the west coast; urban hurricanes in the east could hit Miami, New York, or Washington, D.C., and cities along the Gulf of Mexico like Houston and New Orleans; wildfires near large cities; and major floods.

But none of these are predictions, only educated guesses based on what experts already know. Only one thing is for certain, according to Kelman. "One thing that we've learned about nature is that it always has surprises," he says

Stephanie and Brad's surprise was the caring and closeness of people in the aftermath of a tsunami.

According to the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction in Geneva, last year there was an 18-percent increase or 360 natural disasters compared to only 305 the year before. They attribute the rise to the growing number of floods and droughts.

Click here to Go Inside This Science or contact:

National Center for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, CO 80305
(303) 497-1174

American Geophysical Union
Washington, DC 20009-1277
(800) 966-2481
http://www.agu.org

The American Meteorological Society
Boston, MA 02108-3693
(617) 227-2425
http://www.ametsoc.org

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