Predicting the Weather: Getting it Right!

Reported June 2006

ORLANDO, Fla. (Ivanhoe Broadcast News) -- Do you bring your umbrella? Is severe weather headed your way? Where will the storm hit? These questions are answered by meteorologists every day. Their accuracy can not only help plan your weekend picnic, but can save lives, too. But how accurate are they? Weather forecasters and meteorologists are using more advanced technology than ever before to know when and where severe weather will strike.

Lightning ... Hail ... Tornadoes! The United States experience more severe storms than any other country in the world. On average, 10,000 violent storms, 5,000 floods, and 1,000 tornadoes hit each year.

Doppler radar helps meteorologists make short-term forecasts; more than 150 of them are linked together across the country. Longer-range forecasts are based on computer models of the atmosphere. Weather reports from the ground, satellites and weather balloons are fed into weather computers. These forecasts are more unreliable because of the always-constant, changing weather factors.

"We concentrate so much on making sure that the information we're sending out is accurate," says Jim McFadden, Ph.D., Chief of the Programs & Projects Staff at the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center in Tampa, Florida. From there, hurricane planes fly into the eye while Doppler radar on board gives instant readings of the storm's size. Ships and buoys do the work at sea level.

The focus is now on finding better ways to predict the intensity and storm surge.

Chris Landsea, Ph.D., the Science and Operations Officer at the NOAA National Hurricane Center in Miami, says, "It's really discouraging for us that we can do an OK job with the predictions, but still 1,300 people die."

Hopefully now these newer technologies will keep more people out of the storm's way. The most impressive gain in forecast accuracy in recent years has been the prediction of five-day forecasts. Better computer models that can interpret more information are the key factor to their reliability.

Click here to Go Inside This Science or contact:

Erica Rule
Public Relations Officer
NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
Miami, FL
(305) 361-4541

For more information about the science behind weather forecasting, contact:

The American Meteorological Society
Boston, MA 02108-3693
(617) 227-2425
http://www.ametsoc.org

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