Hurricanes: Predicting 2006

Reported May 2006

MIAMI, Fla. (Ivanhoe Broadcast News) -- Last year, a record three Category 5 hurricanes hit the United States, leaving 1,300 Americans dead and millions homeless. Researchers just announced that we're in store for another rough storm season. But using new tools, meteorologists can now tell how many storms will occur and how bad they will be.

Deadly winds and powerful storm surges ... Knowing when and where intense hurricanes will make landfall can mean the difference between life and death. Survivors of Katrina, the most destructive hurricane to hit the United States, know firsthand just what these storms can do. And before we can fully recover from the storms of 2005, the 2006 hurricane season is just about to begin.

Hurricane season kicks up in June and lasts through November. Right now, researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, also know as NOAA, are trying to figure out what's going to happen in 2006.

"We need to better predict the track, where the storms are going to go, the intensity -- or how strong the winds -- and size of the storm, the rainfall, and the storm surge," Chris Landsea, Ph.D., the Science and Operations Officer at NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla., tells Ivanhoe.

He says there are three key factors in predicting hurricanes. "We look at the temperatures of the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico in the Atlantic. We look at the wind shear over the ocean, or the changing winds with height."

While a wind shear -- or any change in wind speed or direction over a short distance -- may make unstable skies ripe for storm development, the best indicator is how warm the gulf waters are.

Hugh Willoughby, Ph.D., an atmospheric scientist and meteorologist at the International Hurricane Research Center at Florida International University in Miami, says, "The water is somewhat warmer than usual, but not nearly as much as it was last year. Which kinda leads us to think it's going to be an active season, but not like 2005."

And whether we're in an El Niņo or La Niņa will also impact the number of storms and their strength.

"One nice thing about El Niņo," Landsea says, "is it causes a disruption of hurricanes."

During an El Niņo, the wind shear can slice through the top off a hurricane, poking holes in the storm's power. But that's not what's happening right now.

"In fact, there's the opposite -- cooler than normal waters near Ecuador and Peru called La Nina, and it actually makes for less wind shear. So if that sticks around through the height of the hurricane season, that might enhance the season and make it worse," Landsea says.

He says this season the next generation of hurricane modeling will run for the first time. It can simulate a hurricane in the computer. "We get such a good look at what's going on that it should be able to give, not only a better track forecast, but a better idea of what are the worst winds in the hurricane, what's the size of the storm."

And that may be the key to saving more lives.

"Accurate prediction does keep people from dying, but we can't move their houses out of the way," Willoughby adds ... And after last year, nobody should take their safety for granted.

Landsea believes we are in a cycle of rough hurricane seasons. The cycle runs 25 years to 40 years, and we are about 10 years into it ... So he says we could be seeing more storms like Katrina, Charlie and Wilma for the next few decades.

Click here to Go Inside This Science or contact:

National Severe Storms Laboratory
1313 Halley Circle
Norman, Oklahoma 73069
(405) 360-3620
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov

For more information on weather phenomena and meteorology:

The American Meteorological Society
45 Beacon Street
Boston, MA 02108-3693
(617) 227-2425
http://www.ametsoc.org

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