Forecasting Aftershocks

Reported September 2005

PASADENA, Calif. (Ivanhoe Broadcast News) -- Earthquakes are unpredictable, but one thing seismologists know for certain is the occurrence of one earthquake makes another one more likely. The unexpected and violent nature of earthquakes keeps a lot of people on edge, but now, they have a new tool for figuring out when and where aftershocks could occur.

"We are all scared after big earthquakes," says Lucy Jones, Ph.D., lead scientist of the USGS Earthquake Hazards Team at the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena, Calif. Now with a new online map at http://pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/step/, scientists can better forecast when and where aftershocks may happen. Jones says, "We aren't trying to predict every earthquake, but what we are doing is looking at earthquake clustering and providing information about aftershocks." The map calculates information based on historical earthquake patterns and known behavior of aftershocks.

Seismologists at the U.S.G.S. closely monitor earthquake activity. Seismologist Matt Gerstenberger, Ph.D., says, "Information from the events can all be received within a matter of a minute."

"The probabilities of increased activity cover quite a large area, but the really high probabilities are really focused in on a small area around where the event occurred," Gerstenberger says. According to him the color-coded map gives a more accurate picture of what to expect in the days and weeks following a major quake.

But the map isn't just for seismologists: The public can freely access the real-time, earthquake-forecasting tool. Jones says, "It'll show the places where that really are having the aftershocks and the places that aren't." Logging onto this map following an earthquake can relieve anxiety for some and help others be better prepared.

Click here to Go Inside This Science or contact:

American Geophysical Union
2000 Florida Avenue N.W.
Washington, DC 20009-1277
(202) 462-6900
(800) 966-2481
http://www.agu.org/

US Geological Survey
(888) 275-8747
http://www.usgs.gov

John Taber
Education & Outreach Program Manager
Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology
1200 New York Ave. NW, Suite 800
Washington, DC 20005
(202) 682-2220
taber@iris.edu




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